{
 "page": "P119b",
 "title": "AI mediation of economic decisions: eight registered forecasts to 2031",
 "description": "EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 registers eight forecasts on AI-mediated commerce, each with a check date. They cover AI-referred dollar share at the end of 2026, agent-executed share in 2030, the scope and revision of the McKinsey and Bain headline figures, professional-services citation rate, machine-readability spread, accuracy reporting and the comparability of platform denominators. One unbuilt test designs a randomised inscription trial scored for accuracy rather than presence.",
 "line": "studies-and-predictions",
 "url": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts",
 "claims": [
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A1",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A1",
   "statement": "1. **AI-referred dollar share, end of 2026.** Requires AI-referred session share **and** relative average order value, or directly reported revenue share, for a period ending Q4 2026. Conversion differential alone will not settle it. Check 2027-03-31. Claim: 3 to 8 percent at v = 1, restated if v is published.",
   "falsifier": "If AI-referred dollar share at end of 2026 is below 1 percent, the retail channel is further out than this assumes. It would not establish a ten-year delay, and it would say nothing about mediation in fields these instruments do not observe.",
   "window": "Check 2027-03-31",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A1",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      189,
      189
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "1. **AI-referred dollar share, end of 2026.** Requires AI-referred session share **and** relative average order value, or directly reported revenue share, for a period ending Q4 2026. Conversion differential alone will not settle it. Check 2027-03-31. Claim: 3 to 8 percent at v = 1, restated if v is published.",
     "falsifier": "If AI-referred dollar share at end of 2026 is below 1 percent, the retail channel is further out than this assumes. It would not establish a ten-year delay, and it would say nothing about mediation in fields these instruments do not observe."
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 registered forecasts"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A2",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A2",
   "statement": "2. **Agent-executed share, 2030.** Census e-commerce totals for 2030 against any published measurement of agent-executed transaction value **with a stated definition**. Check 2031-06-30. Claim: 5 to 15 percent. If no such figure with a stated definition exists, the item resolves UNRESOLVED — the outcome this document most expects.",
   "falsifier": "If McKinsey's trajectory proves closer than Bain's, the deployment-constraint reading is wrong and mediation arrives faster than section 4 allows.",
   "window": "Check 2031-06-30",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A2",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      191,
      191
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "2. **Agent-executed share, 2030.** Census e-commerce totals for 2030 against any published measurement of agent-executed transaction value **with a stated definition**. Check 2031-06-30. Claim: 5 to 15 percent. If no such figure with a stated definition exists, the item resolves UNRESOLVED — the outcome this document most expects.",
     "falsifier": "If McKinsey's trajectory proves closer than Bain's, the deployment-constraint reading is wrong and mediation arrives faster than section 4 allows."
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A3",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A3",
   "statement": "3. **Forecast scope.** Claim: McKinsey does not publish a scope definition for its orchestrated-revenue figure permitting comparison with Bain's, before 2028-12-31.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": "before 2028-12-31",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A3",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      193,
      193
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "3. **Forecast scope.** Claim: McKinsey does not publish a scope definition for its orchestrated-revenue figure permitting comparison with Bain's, before 2028-12-31.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 registered forecasts"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A4",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A4",
   "statement": "4. **Forecast revision.** Claim: at least one of the two headline figures is revised by more than 40 percent or withdrawn before 2029-12-31.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": "before 2029-12-31",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A4",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      195,
      195
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "4. **Forecast revision.** Claim: at least one of the two headline figures is revised by more than 40 percent or withdrawn before 2029-12-31.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 registered forecasts"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A5",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A5",
   "statement": "5. **Professional-services citation rate.** Claim: rises above 10 percent by 2027-12-31 (Similarweb category series). This resolves a citation-rate prediction and nothing else. It does not establish presence or absence of a market: citation is not the whole channel, and a small number of consequential encounters can carry value.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": "by 2027-12-31",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A5",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      197,
      197
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "5. **Professional-services citation rate.** Claim: rises above 10 percent by 2027-12-31 (Similarweb category series). This resolves a citation-rate prediction and nothing else. It does not establish presence or absence of a market: citation is not the whole channel, and a small number of consequential encounters can carry value.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 registered forecasts"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A6",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A6",
   "statement": "6. **Machine-readability spread.** Claim: Adobe's best-to-worst spread stays above 14 points through 2027-12-31.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": "through 2027-12-31",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A6",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      199,
      199
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "6. **Machine-readability spread.** Claim: Adobe's best-to-worst spread stays above 14 points through 2027-12-31.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 registered forecasts"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A7",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A7",
   "statement": "7. **Accuracy reporting.** Claim: no vendor or academic benchmark publishes entity-resolution accuracy by field, as distinct from presence, mention or citation rate, before 2027-12-31.",
   "falsifier": "If a vendor publishes accuracy-by-field with a stated rubric and an open sample, section 8's burden claim weakens immediately and should be withdrawn to the extent that publication covers.",
   "window": "before 2027-12-31",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A7",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      201,
      201
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "7. **Accuracy reporting.** Claim: no vendor or academic benchmark publishes entity-resolution accuracy by field, as distinct from presence, mention or citation rate, before 2027-12-31.",
     "falsifier": "If a vendor publishes accuracy-by-field with a stated rubric and an open sample, section 8's burden claim weakens immediately and should be withdrawn to the extent that publication covers."
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 registered forecasts"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.A8",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "A"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.A8",
   "statement": "8. **Comparability.** Claim: at a re-audit on 2027-09-10, no three of the nine platforms publish mutually reconcilable denominators.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": "at a re-audit on 2027-09-10",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.A8",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      203,
      203
     ],
     "shape": "A",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "8. **Comparability.** Claim: at a re-audit on 2027-09-10, no three of the nine platforms publish mutually reconcilable denominators.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1632.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-09-20",
   "registered_in": 1632,
   "registered_title": "AI Mediation of Economic Decisions: A Registered Forecast, a Conditional Valuation, and a Statement of Burden (EA-MEDIATED-SHARE-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/ai-mediated-economic-decisions-registered-forecasts#PRED-1632.F1",
   "statement": "Design, stated so it can be criticised before it runs: entities matched on field and size; randomised to inscription against conventional structured data, **not against nothing**, because a buyer's real choice is against the alternative; fixed query sets issued before treatment across at least three surfaces, since only 11 percent of domains are cited on two; outcomes scored for **accuracy** on the declared rubric rather than presence; commercial events tracked to something the firm can see; failures recorded and published with successes.\n\nThat design is also what would put a number on p, which is the term nobody has.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1632.F1",
     "deposit": 1632,
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "lines": [
      157,
      159
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1632/",
     "quote": "Design, stated so it can be criticised before it runs: entities matched on field and size; randomised to inscription against conventional structured data, **not against nothing**, because a buyer's real choice is against the alternative; fixed query sets issued before treatment across at least three surfaces, since only 11 percent of domains are cited on two; outcomes scored for **accuracy** on the declared rubric rather than presence; commercial events tracked to something the firm can see; failures recorded and published with successes.\n\nThat design is also what would put a number on p, which is the term nobody has.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  }
 ]
}