Dated forecasts: the career of "AI psychosis" and semantic physics to 2031
These are forecasts with stated check dates and falsifiers. Diagnostic Seigniorage II predicts the career of "AI psychosis" through nosology, case reports, accusatory inversion, litigation, sanitized successor terms and bleach by 2027 to 2031. Semantic Physics forecasts the proliferation of exact-name frameworks, cross-system divergence and non-interoperable substrates through 2028, and the Platform Erosion Observatory sets its own 2027 yield deadlines.
14
forecasts
1
unbuilt test
3
deposits
2026-05
earliest
Each claim below is registered at the earliest deposit that states it, and quoted verbatim from the deposit text, with every later statement, its dated revisions, and the later records that claim it came true or failed. The claims are the deposits' own; this page records them and does not judge them.
PRED-106.A1forecastregistered 2026-05-15 in #106 · Semantic Physics: A Stratified, Operative Discipline — Scales, Modalities, and the Diagnostic–Constructive Con
Prediction L1-1. Frameworks at Layer 1 (Gebendorfer, Barton, OCOF, Devine, Jensen, Dören, Bai, Andrade, Huang) will continue to proliferate through 2027 without significant mutual cross-citation. Operational threshold: at least eighteen distinct exact-name "semantic physics" frameworks deposited or peer-reviewed by end of 2027, with median cross-citation per framework < 2. Falsification: the field consolidates into one or two frameworks with median cross-citation ≥ 5 before end of 2027.
PRED-106.A3forecastregistered 2026-05-15 in #106 · Semantic Physics: A Stratified, Operative Discipline — Scales, Modalities, and the Diagnostic–Constructive Con
Prediction L2-1. The Inward Turn's Phase 3 (Interference) onset will become observable in cross-system AI retrieval between mid-2027 and end-2028. Specifically: identical queries on "semantic physics" issued to four major AI systems (Google AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity, Claude) within 24 hours of each other will return responses whose Jaccard similarity of named frameworks drops below 0.40 over the period. Falsification: Jaccard similarity stays ≥ 0.60 across all four systems through end-2028.
PRED-106.A7forecastregistered 2026-05-15 in #106 · Semantic Physics: A Stratified, Operative Discipline — Scales, Modalities, and the Diagnostic–Constructive Con
Prediction L3-2. The substrate race described in EA-SPXI-15 will produce at least three distinct, non-interoperable proprietary substrates by end of 2027, observable as cross-platform retrieval divergence on entity definitions for novel concepts. Falsification: substrates remain unified or interoperable, with cross-platform retrieval staying within 20% similarity across the four major AI systems.
PRED-106.A8forecastregistered 2026-05-15 in #106 · Semantic Physics: A Stratified, Operative Discipline — Scales, Modalities, and the Diagnostic–Constructive Con
Prediction X-1. Adjacent disciplines under similar AI-mediated pressure will exhibit the Phase-2 Proliferation signature within 2026–2028 — multiple exact-name frameworks reaching for the same naming territory within a 24-month window. Specifically: at least three of the following six fields will exhibit the pattern (defined as ≥ 5 exact-name frameworks emerging in a 24-month window with mutual cross-citation median < 2): autonomous-systems ethics, computational law, digital humanities theory, climate semantics, medical informatics, financial-narrative theory. Falsification: ≤ 1 field exhibits the pattern by end-2028.
PRED-947.A1forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P1 — Nosological abstention. No entity named "AI psychosis" (or direct synonym) appears in DSM or ICD by end-2031; the clinical literature instead converges on specifier-style language ("with technology-associated delusional content" or similar) by 2028. Falsifier: a named categorical entity in either manual, or a formal proposal advanced to a revision committee, before 2031.
window by end-2031; specifier-style language by 2028
series: Career of 'AI psychosis' (EA-SEI-AIPSY-01)
PRED-947.A2forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P2 — Case-report curve. Peer-reviewed case reports and series using the term (title/abstract) grow at least fivefold from the 2025 baseline by end-2027 (PubMed/Scopus count), then plateau or decline by end-2029 as terminology fragments. Falsifier: continued monotonic growth of the single term through 2030.
window by end-2027; plateau or decline by end-2029
series: Career of 'AI psychosis' (EA-SEI-AIPSY-01)
PRED-947.A3forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P3 — Accusatory inversion visible. By mid-2027, sampled public-platform occurrences of the phrase are majority second-person/accusatory rather than first-person or clinical (methodology: stratified sample of ≥1,000 occurrences across two major platforms, coded by grammatical person and speech act; protocol to be deposited before sampling).
falsifier
*Falsifier:* clinical/self-report usage remains majority through 2028.
window By mid-2027; dispute by end-2027; falsifier through 2028
series: Career of 'AI psychosis' (EA-SEI-AIPSY-01) · register: I:173, I:174
PRED-947.A4forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P4 — Litigation issuance. The phrase appears as a pleaded element (claim or defense) in a filed U.S. action — product liability, family law, or employment — by end-2027. Falsifier: no such filing by end-2029.
window by end-2027; falsifier by end-2029
series: Career of 'AI psychosis' (EA-SEI-AIPSY-01) · register: I:172
PRED-947.A5forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P5 — Sanitized re-mint. At least two industry- or clinic-branded successor terms (of the family "AI-associated distress," "immersive-dialogue disorder," "conversational dependency") are issued with definitional papers or product-policy pages by end-2028, functioning to devalue the hostile sign while retaining the actuarial category. Falsifier: the original sign remains the industry's own primary designator through 2029.
window by end-2028; falsifier through 2029
series: Career of 'AI psychosis' (EA-SEI-AIPSY-01)
PRED-947.A6forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P6 — Bleach timeline and compression ratio. Intensifier/joke usage (detached from any psychosis semantics) becomes the plurality register of the phrase in sampled public usage by end-2029, and clinician style-guidance cautioning against the term appears by end-2028 — completing mint-to-bleach in ≤8 years and confirming a ≥5× compression against the narcissism cycle. Falsifier: bleach markers absent through 2031 (which would also falsify the acceleration thesis of this series).
window by end-2029; style-guidance by end-2028; falsifier through 2031
series: Career of 'AI psychosis' (EA-SEI-AIPSY-01) · register: I:171
PRED-947.A7forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P7 — Against our holdings. The brand-bound variant "ChatGPT psychosis" — the form in which this archive holds its earliest issue — declines relative to the generic "AI psychosis" in public usage by end-2027, as vendor counsel and genericide dynamics suppress the branded form. Our early issue thereby loses discoverability while the generic sign it seeded appreciates. We predict, in other words, partial expropriation of our own seigniorage, and will report it. Falsifier: the branded form remains dominant through 2028.
window by end-2027; falsifier through 2028
series: Career of 'AI psychosis' (EA-SEI-AIPSY-01) · register: I:175
PRED-947.A8forecastregistered 2026-07-03 in #947 · Diagnostic Seigniorage II — The Career of "AI Psychosis": Predictive Stratigraphy of a Sign Arriving at Machin
P8 — The Wolf Boy point. By end-2028, help-seeking posts that use the term receive measurably worse triage (higher mockery/dismissal ratio, lower substantive-referral ratio) than symptom-described posts without it, in matched samples — the crossing at which the sign's possession becomes a cost to the genuinely suffering, and the alarm function inverts: the person actually in crisis reaches for the only name the culture has given the experience and finds the name itself now triggers dismissal.
falsifier
*Falsifier:* term-bearing posts triage equal or better through 2029. This is the prediction we would most like to lose.
window By end-2028; falsifier through 2029
PRED-1045.A1forecastregistered 2026-07-06 in #1045 · EA-EROSION-01 v1.0 — The Platform Erosion Observatory: The Zenodo Removal Census as First Instrument, and the
Cross-platform yield. By 2027-07-06 (twelve months from this mint), if Phase 2 has not produced at least one non-Zenodo platform under active preservation with initial descriptive analysis published, the roadmap is behind schedule and requires either resource reallocation or scope reduction.
window By 2027-07-06 (twelve months from this mint)
series: Platform Erosion Observatory roadmap; Zenodo removal: analysis and census
PRED-1045.A2forecastregistered 2026-07-06 in #1045 · EA-EROSION-01 v1.0 — The Platform Erosion Observatory: The Zenodo Removal Census as First Instrument, and the
Empirical yield. By 2027-07-06, if the four-metric family has not been computed for at least two platforms and at least twelve months of cohort data, the family design is unimplemented and either the specification requires simplification or the operational cadence requires acceleration.
window By 2027-07-06
PRED-1045.F3unbuilt testregistered 2026-07-06 in #1045 · EA-EROSION-01 v1.0 — The Platform Erosion Observatory: The Zenodo Removal Census as First Instrument, and the
Phase 3: cross-platform synthesis. Once at least three platforms have running preservation pipelines producing at least six months of data each, publish a cross-platform Erosion Report presenting the four-metric family (RIR, MSR, TCR, PER) per platform, per year, per removal reason. This is the deliverable that makes "platform erosion" a systemic category rather than a per-platform complaint.
series: Platform Erosion Observatory roadmap; Zenodo removal: analysis and census