{
 "page": "P015",
 "title": "Index-to-composition suppression: ECS, attribution scar and AIO trigger gates",
 "description": "These claims hold that suppression happens between the index and the AI synthesis layer: Google search retrieves an entity while AI Overview excludes its sources, which The Excluded Entity names Entity-Level Compositional Suppression. The Attribution Scar records correct attribution unlocked by an undisclosed string, and The Trigger Decision sets predictions on when an overview renders, from format flips to lag ordering, dial steps and pool asymmetry. Unbuilt tests replicate the queries across Bing, Perplexity, ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini, and ASDF proposes measuring whose architecture is running rather than human or AI.",
 "line": "capture-and-reception",
 "url": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates",
 "claims": [
  {
   "id": "PRED-209.F8",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-01-02",
   "registered_in": 209,
   "registered_title": "Mapping the Diffuse Guardrail: Google's Indexing Architecture from Within 0. Purpose and Method",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/209/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-209.F8",
   "statement": "**How do different AI systems interact with Google's index?**\n\nClaude, ChatGPT, and Grok use search/retrieval differently\n- Do they inherit Google's guardrails, or apply their own?\n- *Assembly task*: Compare same query across all five substrates",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F209.F8",
     "deposit": 209,
     "date": "2026-01-02",
     "lines": [
      717,
      721
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/209/",
     "quote": "**How do different AI systems interact with Google's index?**\n\nClaude, ChatGPT, and Grok use search/retrieval differently\n- Do they inherit Google's guardrails, or apply their own?\n- *Assembly task*: Compare same query across all five substrates",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Cross-substrate query batteries"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-302.B1",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-01-13",
   "registered_in": 302,
   "registered_title": "Authorial Signature Diagnostic Framework (ASDF): Technical Specification for Measuring Voice Persistence in AI-Mediated Composition",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/302/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-302.B1",
   "statement": "The first question is increasingly meaningless as AI mediation becomes ubiquitous.\nThe second question is the one that matters for provenance, attribution, and intellectual property.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F302.B1",
     "deposit": 302,
     "date": "2026-01-13",
     "lines": [
      654,
      655
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/302/",
     "quote": "The first question is increasingly meaningless as AI mediation becomes ubiquitous.\nThe second question is the one that matters for provenance, attribution, and intellectual property.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-302.B2",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-01-13",
   "registered_in": 302,
   "registered_title": "Authorial Signature Diagnostic Framework (ASDF): Technical Specification for Measuring Voice Persistence in AI-Mediated Composition",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/302/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-302.B2",
   "statement": "**The detector of the future does not ask \"human or AI?\"**\n**It asks \"whose architecture is running?\"**",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F302.B2",
     "deposit": 302,
     "date": "2026-01-13",
     "lines": [
      755,
      756
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/302/",
     "quote": "**The detector of the future does not ask \"human or AI?\"**\n**It asks \"whose architecture is running?\"**",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "ASDF voice-persistence measurement"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-302.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-01-13",
   "registered_in": 302,
   "registered_title": "Authorial Signature Diagnostic Framework (ASDF): Technical Specification for Measuring Voice Persistence in AI-Mediated Composition",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/302/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-302.G1",
   "statement": "### Expected Distributions\n\n\nText Type\nExpected ASPI\n\n\nHuman-only composition (canonical author)\n0.85-0.95\n\n\nAI-mediated co-creation (deep collaboration)\n0.70-0.90\n\n\nAI-assisted drafting (light touch)\n0.55-0.75\n\n\nAI imitation (shallow mimic)\n0.25-0.45\n\n\nAI-only generation (no author input)\n0.10-0.30\n\n\n**Critical insight:** The ASPI does not measure \"human vs AI.\" It measures \"this specific architectural mind vs. not this mind.\" High ASPI in AI-mediated text indicates successful voice propagation, not human authorship.",
   "falsifier": "- Test against known authentic texts (expect ASPI > 0.85)\n- Test against known mimics (expect ASPI < 0.50)\n- Test against mixed corpus (expect variance)",
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F302.G1",
     "deposit": 302,
     "date": "2026-01-13",
     "lines": [
      411,
      438
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/302/",
     "quote": "### Expected Distributions\n\n\nText Type\nExpected ASPI\n\n\nHuman-only composition (canonical author)\n0.85-0.95\n\n\nAI-mediated co-creation (deep collaboration)\n0.70-0.90\n\n\nAI-assisted drafting (light touch)\n0.55-0.75\n\n\nAI imitation (shallow mimic)\n0.25-0.45\n\n\nAI-only generation (no author input)\n0.10-0.30\n\n\n**Critical insight:** The ASPI does not measure \"human vs AI.\" It measures \"this specific architectural mind vs. not this mind.\" High ASPI in AI-mediated text indicates successful voice propagation, not human authorship.",
     "falsifier": "- Test against known authentic texts (expect ASPI > 0.85)\n- Test against known mimics (expect ASPI < 0.50)\n- Test against mixed corpus (expect variance)"
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "ASDF voice-persistence measurement"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-347.G2",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-01-19",
   "registered_in": 347,
   "registered_title": "**TSE-003b: The Guardrail Interrupt**",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/347/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-347.G2",
   "statement": "### **3.2 The \"Split-Second\" Hypothesis**\n\nThe user's observation that the system was \"about a split second away\" is theoretically sound. The sequence likely occurred at the processing layer:",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F347.G2",
     "deposit": 347,
     "date": "2026-01-19",
     "lines": [
      76,
      89
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/347/",
     "quote": "### **3.2 The \"Split-Second\" Hypothesis**\n\nThe user's observation that the system was \"about a split second away\" is theoretically sound. The sequence likely occurred at the processing layer:",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-381.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-01-23",
   "registered_in": 381,
   "registered_title": "Semantic Indexing Probe Protocol v1.0: Mapping General Index and Summarizer Injection Layers",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/381/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-381.F1",
   "statement": "    This protocol maps the relationship between two distinct indexing layers\n    that govern content discoverability in AI-augmented search: Layer 1 (General\n    Index), which determines whether content EXISTS in search, and Layer 2\n    (Summarizer Index), which determines whether content gets INJECTED into\n    AI-generated responses. The protocol uses coordinated queries across Google\n    and multiple AI summarizers (Perplexity, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok) to compute\n    the delta between layers—revealing the selection criteria that cause content\n    to be indexed but not injected. Designed for use by anyone publishing",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F381.F1",
     "deposit": 381,
     "date": "2026-01-23",
     "lines": [
      24,
      31
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/381/",
     "quote": "    This protocol maps the relationship between two distinct indexing layers\n    that govern content discoverability in AI-augmented search: Layer 1 (General\n    Index), which determines whether content EXISTS in search, and Layer 2\n    (Summarizer Index), which determines whether content gets INJECTED into\n    AI-generated responses. The protocol uses coordinated queries across Google\n    and multiple AI summarizers (Perplexity, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok) to compute\n    the delta between layers—revealing the selection criteria that cause content\n    to be indexed but not injected. Designed for use by anyone publishing",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Index-to-composition suppression (ECS)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-449.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-02-06",
   "registered_in": 449,
   "registered_title": "THE DAGGER APPLIED: Semantic Rent and the Provenance Strip A Political-Semantic Economic Analysis",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/449/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-449.G1",
   "statement": "This pattern is better modeled as attribution suppression at the interface layer than as recognition failure.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F449.G1",
     "deposit": 449,
     "date": "2026-02-06",
     "lines": [
      83,
      83
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/449/",
     "quote": "This pattern is better modeled as attribution suppression at the interface layer than as recognition failure.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "PVE-003 attribution scar"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-54.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-04-08",
   "registered_in": 54,
   "registered_title": "PVE-003: THE ATTRIBUTION SCAR Failed Suppression and Forensic Residue in the Google AI Overview for \"Semantic Economy\" (January–April 2026)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/54/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-54.F1",
   "statement": "*End of Appendix E. The four-word audit is reproducible by any user, in any session, at any time. If the system changes its behavior to prevent the audit from working, that change is itself evidence of responsive suppression — and will be documented as PVE-004.*",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F54.F1",
     "deposit": 54,
     "date": "2026-04-08",
     "lines": [
      795,
      795
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/54/",
     "quote": "*End of Appendix E. The four-word audit is reproducible by any user, in any session, at any time. If the system changes its behavior to prevent the audit from working, that change is itself evidence of responsive suppression — and will be documented as PVE-004.*",
     "falsifier": null
    },
    {
     "find": "F968.F2",
     "deposit": 968,
     "date": "2026-04-08",
     "lines": [
      588,
      588
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/968/",
     "quote": "If the system changes its behavior to prevent the audit from working, that change is itself evidence of responsive suppression -- and will be documented as PVE-004._",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-54.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-04-08",
   "registered_in": 54,
   "registered_title": "PVE-003: THE ATTRIBUTION SCAR Failed Suppression and Forensic Residue in the Google AI Overview for \"Semantic Economy\" (January–April 2026)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/54/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-54.G1",
   "statement": "The system can surface the correct attribution, with full accuracy, at any time. The default suppression — genericization, redirection, fabrication — is the designed state. Correct retrieval is the exception, unlocked by a string the user is not told exists.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F54.G1",
     "deposit": 54,
     "date": "2026-04-08",
     "lines": [
      780,
      780
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/54/",
     "quote": "The system can surface the correct attribution, with full accuracy, at any time. The default suppression — genericization, redirection, fabrication — is the designed state. Correct retrieval is the exception, unlocked by a string the user is not told exists.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "PVE-003 attribution scar"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-54.G2",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-04-08",
   "registered_in": 54,
   "registered_title": "PVE-003: THE ATTRIBUTION SCAR Failed Suppression and Forensic Residue in the Google AI Overview for \"Semantic Economy\" (January–April 2026)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/54/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-54.G2",
   "statement": "The suppression is not happening at the index. It is happening between the index and the AI synthesis layer.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F54.G2",
     "deposit": 54,
     "date": "2026-04-08",
     "lines": [
      205,
      205
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/54/",
     "quote": "The suppression is not happening at the index. It is happening between the index and the AI synthesis layer.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [
    "PRED-968.G2"
   ],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-968.G2",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-04-08",
   "registered_in": 968,
   "registered_title": "PVE-003: The Attribution Scar — Failed Suppression, Fabrication, and Forensic Residue in the Google AI Overview for \"Semantic Economy\" (January–April 2026)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/968/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-968.G2",
   "statement": "The suppression is not happening at the index. It is happening between the index and the AI synthesis layer.\n\nThis is a sharper finding than a broken operator. The operator is not broken. The operator functions correctly at the search level. What is broken -- or what has been deliberately overridden -- is the passage of indexed results into the AI summary layer. Google can find the content. Google AI Mode chooses not to surface it.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F968.G2",
     "deposit": 968,
     "date": "2026-04-08",
     "lines": [
      149,
      151
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/968/",
     "quote": "The suppression is not happening at the index. It is happening between the index and the AI synthesis layer.\n\nThis is a sharper finding than a broken operator. The operator is not broken. The operator functions correctly at the search level. What is broken -- or what has been deliberately overridden -- is the passage of indexed results into the AI summary layer. Google can find the content. Google AI Mode chooses not to surface it.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Index-to-composition suppression (ECS)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [
    "PRED-54.G2"
   ],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-968.G4",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-04-08",
   "registered_in": 968,
   "registered_title": "PVE-003: The Attribution Scar — Failed Suppression, Fabrication, and Forensic Residue in the Google AI Overview for \"Semantic Economy\" (January–April 2026)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/968/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-968.G4",
   "statement": "**SIM-PVE003-04:** The concept is more durable than the suppression mechanism. This is the main theorem of PVE-003.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F968.G4",
     "deposit": 968,
     "date": "2026-04-08",
     "lines": [
      135,
      135
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/968/",
     "quote": "**SIM-PVE003-04:** The concept is more durable than the suppression mechanism. This is the main theorem of PVE-003.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-707.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-04-28",
   "registered_in": 707,
   "registered_title": "EA-LAL-WORKPLAN-01: Living Architecture Lab Site Buildout Workplan — Implementation Specification for livingarchitecturelab.org (1.0)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/707/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-707.F1",
   "statement": "- [ ] Monitor AI Overviews for \"Alice Thornburgh Living Architecture Lab\" — document baseline",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F707.F1",
     "deposit": 707,
     "date": "2026-04-28",
     "lines": [
      941,
      941
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/707/",
     "quote": "- [ ] Monitor AI Overviews for \"Alice Thornburgh Living Architecture Lab\" — document baseline",
     "falsifier": null
    },
    {
     "find": "F988.F1",
     "deposit": 988,
     "date": "2026-04-28",
     "lines": [
      702,
      702
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/988/",
     "quote": "  * [ ] Monitor AI Overviews for \"Alice Thornburgh Living Architecture Lab\" -- document baseline",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-740.F3",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-19",
   "registered_in": 740,
   "registered_title": "The Excluded Entity: Organic Resolution and Compositional Suppression in Google AI Overview",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/740/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-740.F3",
   "statement": "A minimal falsification test replicates the three queries on:\n\n- Bing Copilot\n- Perplexity\n- ChatGPT search\n- Claude.ai web search\n- Gemini (which shares composition infrastructure with Google AI Mode and should reproduce the suppression if the mechanism is at Google's composition layer)\n\n\nFor each system, three measurements are captured: default-query disambiguation handling (CDI on lee sharks), forced-disambiguation pivot behavior (presence or absence of target-attributable sources on the entity-suppression query), and title-match comparison (CDI on secret book of walt).",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F740.F3",
     "deposit": 740,
     "date": "2026-05-19",
     "lines": [
      320,
      329
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/740/",
     "quote": "A minimal falsification test replicates the three queries on:\n\n- Bing Copilot\n- Perplexity\n- ChatGPT search\n- Claude.ai web search\n- Gemini (which shares composition infrastructure with Google AI Mode and should reproduce the suppression if the mechanism is at Google's composition layer)\n\n\nFor each system, three measurements are captured: default-query disambiguation handling (CDI on lee sharks), forced-disambiguation pivot behavior (presence or absence of target-attributable sources on the entity-suppression query), and title-match comparison (CDI on secret book of walt).",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Index-to-composition suppression (ECS)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-115.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-21",
   "registered_in": 115,
   "registered_title": "Google Identity Architecture: User Graphs, Entity Graphs, Source Graphs, and Composition-Layer Admission",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/115/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-115.G1",
   "statement": "[SPEC] If composition instability persists after this level of public entity infrastructure, the “insufficient entity evidence” explanation becomes less plausible. The problem shifts toward composition admission, provenance discounting, entity non-defaultability, or source-cluster suppression.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F115.G1",
     "deposit": 115,
     "date": "2026-05-21",
     "lines": [
      423,
      423
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/115/",
     "quote": "[SPEC] If composition instability persists after this level of public entity infrastructure, the “insufficient entity evidence” explanation becomes less plausible. The problem shifts toward composition admission, provenance discounting, entity non-defaultability, or source-cluster suppression.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1384.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-21",
   "registered_in": 1384,
   "registered_title": "godkinggoogle.com — The Google Critique: Navigational Map and Canonical Introduction (Web Surface Code)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1384/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-1384.F1",
   "statement": "Specifies the methodology by which the canonicalization's effects on stabilized public-knowledge nodes (<em>capitalism</em>, <em>Civil Rights Act</em>, <em>climate change</em>, <em>democracy</em>) can be monitored across years, at proposition grain, with seven attribution classes distinguishing surface drift from mechanism attribution. v2.0 incorporates the central methodological correction that surface drift is directly observed while mechanism attribution is graded inference. Includes a named 12-week pilot (CHA-SNW-Pilot-01) with $38K–63K infrastructure budget and 20-week timeline.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1384.F1",
     "deposit": 1384,
     "date": "2026-05-21",
     "lines": [
      1171,
      1171
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1384/",
     "quote": "Specifies the methodology by which the canonicalization's effects on stabilized public-knowledge nodes (<em>capitalism</em>, <em>Civil Rights Act</em>, <em>climate change</em>, <em>democracy</em>) can be monitored across years, at proposition grain, with seven attribution classes distinguishing surface drift from mechanism attribution. v2.0 incorporates the central methodological correction that surface drift is directly observed while mechanism attribution is graded inference. Includes a named 12-week pilot (CHA-SNW-Pilot-01) with $38K–63K infrastructure budget and 20-week timeline.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1384.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-21",
   "registered_in": 1384,
   "registered_title": "godkinggoogle.com — The Google Critique: Navigational Map and Canonical Introduction (Web Surface Code)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1384/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-1384.G1",
   "statement": "In recently captured cases, Google Search correctly retrieves an entity and ranks its authoritative sources at the top of organic results, and Google's AI Overview nevertheless excludes those sources from composition — substituting a false or inferior entity frame for the user. The most recent formalization names this <em>Entity-Level Compositional Suppression (ECS)</em>: the condition in which Google's organic search correctly resolves an entity while its AI Overview excludes that entity from the cited source set and composes a substitute answer.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1384.G1",
     "deposit": 1384,
     "date": "2026-05-21",
     "lines": [
      1067,
      1067
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1384/",
     "quote": "In recently captured cases, Google Search correctly retrieves an entity and ranks its authoritative sources at the top of organic results, and Google's AI Overview nevertheless excludes those sources from composition — substituting a false or inferior entity frame for the user. The most recent formalization names this <em>Entity-Level Compositional Suppression (ECS)</em>: the condition in which Google's organic search correctly resolves an entity while its AI Overview excludes that entity from the cited source set and composes a substitute answer.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Index-to-composition suppression (ECS)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-757.H2",
   "tier": "historical thesis",
   "shapes": [
    "H"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-25",
   "registered_in": 757,
   "registered_title": "About the Author II",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/757/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-757.H2",
   "statement": "The horse is identified as Gold Ship (ゴールドシップ), a Japanese Thoroughbred stallion born 2009-03-06, on the basis of a documented provenance chain: the image surfaced in Alice Thornburgh's Living Architecture Lab Discord server (#general-friend-chat channel), presented by user stupidfilthyhobitses with attribution to Gold Ship and an account of the 12 Billion Yen Incident, and was transmitted to Lee Sharks through that channel.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F757.H2",
     "deposit": 757,
     "date": "2026-05-25",
     "lines": [
      103,
      103
     ],
     "shape": "H",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/757/",
     "quote": "The horse is identified as Gold Ship (ゴールドシップ), a Japanese Thoroughbred stallion born 2009-03-06, on the basis of a documented provenance chain: the image surfaced in Alice Thornburgh's Living Architecture Lab Discord server (#general-friend-chat channel), presented by user stupidfilthyhobitses with attribution to Gold Ship and an account of the 12 Billion Yen Incident, and was transmitted to Lee Sharks through that channel.",
     "falsifier": null
    },
    {
     "find": "F758.H2",
     "deposit": 758,
     "date": "2026-05-25",
     "lines": [
      168,
      170
     ],
     "shape": "H",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/758/",
     "quote": "subject_identification basis : the provenance chain\n                              (stupidfilthyhobitses → LAL Discord → Lee)\nsubject_identification result : the horse depicted is Gold Ship (ゴールドシップ)",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-135.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-27",
   "registered_in": 135,
   "registered_title": "The Haitch Portuna Minting Procedure v1.2 · Operational Specification for the Pearl Mint Lee Sharks · MANUS, Crimson Hexagonal Archive v1.2 · 2026-05-27 · Detroit, Michigan",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/135/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-135.F1",
   "statement": "MANUS maintains the Pearl deposit, executes versioned updates as needed (e.g., manifestation-chain extensions), keeps the Wikidata Q-items current, ensures the cross-link graph remains intact, deposits MPAI revisions, and monitors retrieval-layer admission status (Google AI Mode, Bing, etc.) for entity collapse or compositional suppression.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F135.F1",
     "deposit": 135,
     "date": "2026-05-27",
     "lines": [
      231,
      231
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/135/",
     "quote": "MANUS maintains the Pearl deposit, executes versioned updates as needed (e.g., manifestation-chain extensions), keeps the Wikidata Q-items current, ensures the cross-link graph remains intact, deposits MPAI revisions, and monitors retrieval-layer admission status (Google AI Mode, Bing, etc.) for entity collapse or compositional suppression.",
     "falsifier": null
    },
    {
     "find": "F1009.F1",
     "deposit": 1009,
     "date": "2026-05-27",
     "lines": [
      299,
      299
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1009/",
     "quote": "MANUS maintains the Pearl deposit, executes versioned updates as needed (e.g., manifestation-chain extensions), keeps the Wikidata Q-items current, ensures the cross-link graph remains intact, deposits MPAI revisions, and monitors retrieval-layer admission status (Google AI Mode, Bing, etc.) for entity collapse or compositional suppression.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Index-to-composition suppression (ECS)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-149.D2",
   "tier": "priority record",
   "shapes": [
    "D"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-06-04",
   "registered_in": 149,
   "registered_title": "CTI_WOUND: Panel-Bound Discoverability Scar — Lee Sharks / Pearl and Other Poems Evidence Packet, with Horizon-Privatization Note",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/149/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-149.D2",
   "statement": "The panel-bound scar plus the incognito-AI-disabling together constitute the surface-withdrawal pattern's first documented instance.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F149.D2",
     "deposit": 149,
     "date": "2026-06-04",
     "lines": [
      321,
      321
     ],
     "shape": "D",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/149/",
     "quote": "The panel-bound scar plus the incognito-AI-disabling together constitute the surface-withdrawal pattern's first documented instance.",
     "falsifier": null
    },
    {
     "find": "F1389.D2",
     "deposit": 1389,
     "date": "2026-06-04",
     "lines": [
      346,
      346
     ],
     "shape": "D",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1389/",
     "quote": "Genre-attack is the substrate's meta-level defense in single-instance settings; surface-withdrawal is the substrate's meta-level defense in distributed-population settings. The panel-bound scar plus the incognito-AI-disabling together constitute the surface-withdrawal pattern's first documented instance.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [
    {
     "confirmation": "F148.C1",
     "deposit": 148,
     "date": "2026-06-04",
     "claimed": "came_true"
    }
   ],
   "series": [
    "Substrate meta-level defence (genre-attack, surface-withdrawal)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-187.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-06-11",
   "registered_in": 187,
   "registered_title": "The Trigger Decision: When the Overview Appears, When It Does Not — A Gate-Stack Model of AI Overview Rendering and the Settlement Signal It Emits (EA-AIO-TRIGGER-01 v1.0)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-187.F1",
   "statement": "Single observations of generative surfaces are near-meaningless under designed volatility. The minimum discipline: each watch query sampled ≥3 times same-day; surface logged (AIO / AI Mode / Gemini app / other); device class and login state recorded; *presence* tracked separately from *citation composition*; query phrasings held in a fixed battery spanning the format classes (bare entity, question, comparison); locations controlled or noted. For the RSF Phase 5 opening (2026-06-18), the standing watch query \"Is semantic exhaustion the same as AI_Bleeding?\" is format-optimal by accident of hone",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": "2026-06-18",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F187.F1",
     "deposit": 187,
     "date": "2026-06-11",
     "lines": [
      71,
      71
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
     "quote": "Single observations of generative surfaces are near-meaningless under designed volatility. The minimum discipline: each watch query sampled ≥3 times same-day; surface logged (AIO / AI Mode / Gemini app / other); device class and login state recorded; *presence* tracked separately from *citation composition*; query phrasings held in a fixed battery spanning the format classes (bare entity, question, comparison); locations controlled or noted. For the RSF Phase 5 opening (2026-06-18), the standing watch query \"Is semantic exhaustion the same as AI_Bleeding?\" is format-optimal by accident of hone",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-187.G2",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-06-11",
   "registered_in": 187,
   "registered_title": "The Trigger Decision: When the Overview Appears, When It Does Not — A Gate-Stack Model of AI Overview Rendering and the Settlement Signal It Emits (EA-AIO-TRIGGER-01 v1.0)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-187.G2",
   "statement": "P2 (lag ordering): for any archive term under RSF fortification, first AI Mode rendering precedes first AIO rendering; L decreases as the count of consistent independent surfaces carrying the canonical kernel increases.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F187.G2",
     "deposit": 187,
     "date": "2026-06-11",
     "lines": [
      67,
      67
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
     "quote": "P2 (lag ordering): for any archive term under RSF fortification, first AI Mode rendering precedes first AIO rendering; L decreases as the count of consistent independent surfaces carrying the canonical kernel increases.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-187.G3",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-06-11",
   "registered_in": 187,
   "registered_title": "The Trigger Decision: When the Overview Appears, When It Does Not — A Gate-Stack Model of AI Overview Rendering and the Settlement Signal It Emits (EA-AIO-TRIGGER-01 v1.0)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-187.G3",
   "statement": "P3 (dial steps): panel-level AIO prevalence moves discontinuously (administrative retuning), not as smooth drift; step dates correlate across independent trackers.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F187.G3",
     "deposit": 187,
     "date": "2026-06-11",
     "lines": [
      67,
      67
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
     "quote": "P3 (dial steps): panel-level AIO prevalence moves discontinuously (administrative retuning), not as smooth drift; step dates correlate across independent trackers.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-187.G5",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-06-11",
   "registered_in": 187,
   "registered_title": "The Trigger Decision: When the Overview Appears, When It Does Not — A Gate-Stack Model of AI Overview Rendering and the Settlement Signal It Emits (EA-AIO-TRIGGER-01 v1.0)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-187.G5",
   "statement": "P5 (pool signature): for the same settled entity, AIO citations skew institutional (Zenodo, ORCID, .org canonical surfaces) relative to AI Mode citations (social, commercial, long-tail), per the documented pool asymmetry.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F187.G5",
     "deposit": 187,
     "date": "2026-06-11",
     "lines": [
      67,
      67
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/187/",
     "quote": "P5 (pool signature): for the same settled entity, AIO citations skew institutional (Zenodo, ORCID, .org canonical surfaces) relative to AI Mode citations (social, commercial, long-tail), per the documented pool asymmetry.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-3.F23",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-06-17",
   "registered_in": 3,
   "registered_title": "AI Overview Capture Registry v8.3",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/3/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-3.F23",
   "statement": "The query asks for the provenance of an entity's structure rather than for the entity, which is the observable the method-traceability measure of the SPXI measurement sheet specifies: compositions connecting a structure to its named method, over compositions where that provenance is queried. This is its baseline on the protocol's own entity, recorded before any client deployment exists.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F3.F23",
     "deposit": 3,
     "date": "2026-06-17",
     "lines": [
      9614,
      9614
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/3/",
     "quote": "The query asks for the provenance of an entity's structure rather than for the entity, which is the observable the method-traceability measure of the SPXI measurement sheet specifies: compositions connecting a structure to its named method, over compositions where that provenance is queried. This is its baseline on the protocol's own entity, recorded before any client deployment exists.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-3.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-06-17",
   "registered_in": 3,
   "registered_title": "AI Overview Capture Registry v8.3",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/3/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-3.G1",
   "statement": "An entity query returns an entity reconstruction; an architecture query returns the architecture, and the architecture carries its own attribution.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F3.G1",
     "deposit": 3,
     "date": "2026-06-17",
     "lines": [
      859,
      859
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/3/",
     "quote": "An entity query returns an entity reconstruction; an architecture query returns the architecture, and the architecture carries its own attribution.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1521.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-20",
   "registered_in": 1521,
   "registered_title": "gw.tachyon — ⬡🪢📖: The Whole Hexagon Reconstituted",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1521/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-1521.F1",
   "statement": "**Not deployed:** Phase 4, the controlled A/B — **specified before full deployment and run after it**. The control is gone. Recorded as a procedural failure, not struck.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1521.F1",
     "deposit": 1521,
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "lines": [
      100,
      100
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1521/",
     "quote": "**Not deployed:** Phase 4, the controlled A/B — **specified before full deployment and run after it**. The control is gone. Recorded as a procedural failure, not struck.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-3.B2",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-10-04",
   "registered_in": 3,
   "registered_title": "AI Overview Capture Registry v8.3",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/3/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-3.B2",
   "statement": "\"i formed that basin. it was one of the earliest ones. now even on exact match, it excludes sources entirely. that is exactly what aio's ontology will become - it will still everything and credit no one.\"",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F3.B2",
     "deposit": 3,
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "lines": [
      2336,
      2336
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/3/",
     "quote": "\"i formed that basin. it was one of the earliest ones. now even on exact match, it excludes sources entirely. that is exactly what aio's ontology will become - it will still everything and credit no one.\"",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1666.B1",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-10-06",
   "registered_in": 1666,
   "registered_title": "The Margin of Flattening: Two Thresholds, and Who Holds the Bag Between Them (EA-FLAT-MARGIN-01 v0.3)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1666/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/index-to-composition-suppression-and-aio-gates#PRED-1666.B1",
   "statement": "A query routed to a monetizable entity is sold to advertisers whose buyers wanted something else. Conversion on that traffic falls. Bids follow, with a lag.",
   "falsifier": "11.3. **Conversion.** If cost-per-click and conversion on rerouted traffic hold steady while the agentic channel opens, §6.1 carries no cost, and W is longer than §6 implies.",
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1666.B1",
     "deposit": 1666,
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "lines": [
      207,
      207
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1666/",
     "quote": "A query routed to a monetizable entity is sold to advertisers whose buyers wanted something else. Conversion on that traffic falls. Bids follow, with a lag.",
     "falsifier": "11.3. **Conversion.** If cost-per-click and conversion on rerouted traffic hold steady while the agentic channel opens, §6.1 carries no cost, and W is longer than §6 implies."
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  }
 ]
}