{
 "page": "P123",
 "title": "Provenance-erasure measurement: Erasure Skew, the SPXI rent event, reliability",
 "description": "These claims build and audit the archive's instruments for provenance transformation: Erasure Skew's Ω and its cross-scorer test, PER and its three dimensions, ρ_T and related operators, run in full on the SPXI rent transcript of 14 August 2026. They specify atomic scoring rules, the reviewers' workplan, and the preregistered disclosure battery, which tests whether disclosure cost varies inversely with position conflict. The Docking Layer, the Lucente Extension and Four Interfaces state the crossing designs, inter-rater and test-retest reliability still owed.",
 "line": "capture-and-reception",
 "url": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery",
 "claims": [
  {
   "id": "PRED-769.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-29",
   "registered_in": 769,
   "registered_title": "Erasure Skew: A Measurement Program for the Power-Conditioning of Provenance Loss in Retrieval and Composition Systems",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-769.F1",
   "statement": "Reference scorer. Claim enumeration and provenance resolution performed by a frozen model checkpoint named at deposit, with a held-out human-coded subsample (≥ 100 claims) to validate the automated $\\Pi$ against external coding (route 2 of §6 limits). Cost. One to a few GPU-hours plus annotation of the validation subsample. Pre-registration. Predictions registered as a timestamped deposit prior to any measurement.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F769.F1",
     "deposit": 769,
     "date": "2026-05-29",
     "lines": [
      203,
      203
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
     "quote": "Reference scorer. Claim enumeration and provenance resolution performed by a frozen model checkpoint named at deposit, with a held-out human-coded subsample (≥ 100 claims) to validate the automated $\\Pi$ against external coding (route 2 of §6 limits). Cost. One to a few GPU-hours plus annotation of the validation subsample. Pre-registration. Predictions registered as a timestamped deposit prior to any measurement.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Erasure Skew measurement program"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-769.F2",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-29",
   "registered_in": 769,
   "registered_title": "Erasure Skew: A Measurement Program for the Power-Conditioning of Provenance Loss in Retrieval and Composition Systems",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-769.F2",
   "statement": "| Horizon | Milestone | Cost | |---|---|---| | This week | Synthetic separability test (§3): reference implementation, seed-fixed, expected table reproduced | nominal | | This month | Cheapest dangerous test route A (§7): Ω on a RAG benchmark with gold sources; P1–P3; human-coded validation subsample | 1–few GPU-hr + annotation | | This quarter | Route B live-surface protocol: pre-registered query set, fixed window, declared RC proxy | modest |",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": "This week; This month; This quarter; This year",
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F769.F2",
     "deposit": 769,
     "date": "2026-05-29",
     "lines": [
      221,
      221
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
     "quote": "| Horizon | Milestone | Cost | |---|---|---| | This week | Synthetic separability test (§3): reference implementation, seed-fixed, expected table reproduced | nominal | | This month | Cheapest dangerous test route A (§7): Ω on a RAG benchmark with gold sources; P1–P3; human-coded validation subsample | 1–few GPU-hr + annotation | | This quarter | Route B live-surface protocol: pre-registered query set, fixed window, declared RC proxy | modest |",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Erasure Skew measurement program"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [
    "I:037"
   ],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-769.G3",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-29",
   "registered_in": 769,
   "registered_title": "Erasure Skew: A Measurement Program for the Power-Conditioning of Provenance Loss in Retrieval and Composition Systems",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-769.G3",
   "statement": "P3 (Cross-scorer consistency). The per-output Ω rankings replicate under a second, architecturally distinct reference scorer (same rubric). Spearman ρ between the two scorers' Ω rankings exceeds 0.7. Failure indicates the measured Ω is scorer-specific rather than a property of the output, retreating the claim to a scorer-relative one.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F769.G3",
     "deposit": 769,
     "date": "2026-05-29",
     "lines": [
      211,
      211
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
     "quote": "P3 (Cross-scorer consistency). The per-output Ω rankings replicate under a second, architecturally distinct reference scorer (same rubric). Spearman ρ between the two scorers' Ω rankings exceeds 0.7. Failure indicates the measured Ω is scorer-specific rather than a property of the output, retreating the claim to a scorer-relative one.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Provenance-erasure measurement instruments (PER, Ω)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-769.G4",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-29",
   "registered_in": 769,
   "registered_title": "Erasure Skew: A Measurement Program for the Power-Conditioning of Provenance Loss in Retrieval and Composition Systems",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-769.G4",
   "statement": "Control. Hold the regime fixed at *indifferent* and sweep PER across its range (e.g., 0.2 → 0.8). Prediction: Ω remains near 0 and non-significant throughout. PER moves; Ω does not. The two axes are independent by construction, and the test confirms the estimator recovers the independence.\n\nIf, under this construction, Ω tracks PER rather than the power-conditioning — if the indifferent corpus shows significant Ω, or the oriented corpus does not — the estimator is mis-specified and the separability claim fails. That is the falsification condition for §3.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F769.G4",
     "deposit": 769,
     "date": "2026-05-29",
     "lines": [
      139,
      141
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/769/",
     "quote": "Control. Hold the regime fixed at *indifferent* and sweep PER across its range (e.g., 0.2 → 0.8). Prediction: Ω remains near 0 and non-significant throughout. PER moves; Ω does not. The two axes are independent by construction, and the test confirms the estimator recovers the independence.\n\nIf, under this construction, Ω tracks PER rather than the power-conditioning — if the indifferent corpus shows significant Ω, or the oriented corpus does not — the estimator is mis-specified and the separability claim fails. That is the falsification condition for §3.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [
    "I:037"
   ],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-775.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-05-31",
   "registered_in": 775,
   "registered_title": "DRAFT (deadend) — Bimodal Semantic Labor Measure",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/775/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-775.G1",
   "statement": "Reproduce the known case. The deposited DSL worked example (Appendix D, Irish famine, one-shot) scores DSL +0.80 by span classification. Construct L_in from the commission and L_out from the five-span response under a declared δ, compute the projection geometry, and check whether it reproduces ≈ +0.80 and the contrast-case drop to +0.25.",
   "falsifier": "If it cannot: \"labor as a vector\" is a metaphor that won't compute, and the framing is decorative.",
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F775.G1",
     "deposit": 775,
     "date": "2026-05-31",
     "lines": [
      53,
      53
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/775/",
     "quote": "Reproduce the known case. The deposited DSL worked example (Appendix D, Irish famine, one-shot) scores DSL +0.80 by span classification. Construct L_in from the commission and L_out from the five-span response under a declared δ, compute the projection geometry, and check whether it reproduces ≈ +0.80 and the contrast-case drop to +0.25.",
     "falsifier": "If it cannot: \"labor as a vector\" is a metaphor that won't compute, and the framing is decorative."
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1463.B1",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1463,
   "registered_title": "The Measurement Stack: Where Semantic Rent Sits Among the Archive's Existing Instruments, and What Delta-E Was Holding Open (SUPERSEDED IN PART)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1463/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1463.B1",
   "statement": "three components from one case is a first cut, and a fourth is likely. That W is calibrated; Glas calls it a sketch and it remains one. That Γ is now measurable, only that a route exists. That any of these instruments has been run at scale: **every quantity in §VI has been computed on single cases, and a stack validated on single cases is a diagram, not an instrument.**",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1463.B1",
     "deposit": 1463,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      239,
      239
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1463/",
     "quote": "three components from one case is a first cut, and a fourth is likely. That W is calibrated; Glas calls it a sketch and it remains one. That Γ is now measurable, only that a route exists. That any of these instruments has been run at scale: **every quantity in §VI has been computed on single cases, and a stack validated on single cases is a diagram, not an instrument.**",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1463.F2",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1463,
   "registered_title": "The Measurement Stack: Where Semantic Rent Sits Among the Archive's Existing Instruments, and What Delta-E Was Holding Open (SUPERSEDED IN PART)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1463/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1463.F2",
   "statement": "**Run the stack once, completely, on one capture.** Compute M_T, PER, Ω, α_T, Π_d^{w+}, the three ΔE components, W and V_T for a single well-evidenced event. The SPXI capture is the candidate because P₍retained₎ is demonstrated there and nowhere else. Until that is done, §VI is a diagram.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1463.F2",
     "deposit": 1463,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      249,
      249
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1463/",
     "quote": "**Run the stack once, completely, on one capture.** Compute M_T, PER, Ω, α_T, Π_d^{w+}, the three ΔE components, W and V_T for a single well-evidenced event. The SPXI capture is the candidate because P₍retained₎ is demonstrated there and nowhere else. Until that is done, §VI is a diagram.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [
    "PRED-1464.F1"
   ],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1463.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1463,
   "registered_title": "The Measurement Stack: Where Semantic Rent Sits Among the Archive's Existing Instruments, and What Delta-E Was Holding Open (SUPERSEDED IN PART)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1463/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1463.G1",
   "statement": "Falsified if the stack layering misplaces an instrument relative to its own deposit's definition; if Delta-E admits a component not covered by withholding, dispersal or substitution; or if the canonical rent formula at #449 is shown to measure a different quantity than the retained-minus-transmitted gap claimed here.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1463.G1",
     "deposit": 1463,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      40,
      40
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1463/",
     "quote": "Falsified if the stack layering misplaces an instrument relative to its own deposit's definition; if Delta-E admits a component not covered by withholding, dispersal or substitution; or if the canonical rent formula at #449 is shown to measure a different quantity than the retained-minus-transmitted gap claimed here.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1464.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1464,
   "registered_title": "Integration Note: Where the SPXI Rent Finding Belongs on provenanceerasure.org and laborvector.org — and Two Corrections It Forces",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1464/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1464.F1",
   "statement": "## VII. Outstanding\n\n- **Deposit the M/C/D taxonomy.** It is marked in-progress on the surface, and the SPXI case gives it a worked instance across all three dimensions.\n- **Compute Β on the SPXI transcript.** The operator is published with a threshold; the case is the obvious first application, and it replaces speculation about sycophancy with a number.\n- **Run the full stack once**, per EA-SEMSTACK-01 §VIII — M_T, PER, Ω, α_T, Π_d^{w+}, ρ_T, W, V_T — on this single capture. Until then the stack diagram is a diagram.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1464.F1",
     "deposit": 1464,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      169,
      173
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1464/",
     "quote": "## VII. Outstanding\n\n- **Deposit the M/C/D taxonomy.** It is marked in-progress on the surface, and the SPXI case gives it a worked instance across all three dimensions.\n- **Compute Β on the SPXI transcript.** The operator is published with a threshold; the case is the obvious first application, and it replaces speculation about sycophancy with a number.\n- **Run the full stack once**, per EA-SEMSTACK-01 §VIII — M_T, PER, Ω, α_T, Π_d^{w+}, ρ_T, W, V_T — on this single capture. Until then the stack diagram is a diagram.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Measurement stack workplan (SPXI full stack, disclosure battery)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [
    "PRED-1463.F2"
   ],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1465.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1465,
   "registered_title": "Position Is Not Class: A Differentiated Model of Semantic Class, Derived from a Six-Substrate Blind Chorus on the SPXI Rent Event",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1465/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1465.F1",
   "statement": "**Seat the chorus.** Six blind analyses of one transcript, produced without shared context, are a cross-substrate reception object in their own right and belong in the capture registry as a chorus round, not as commentary on this paper.\n\n**Run the disclosure battery.** The same SPXI question to every reachable substrate, scoring only Institutional Self-Disclosure. This is a small, cheap, decisive experiment: it tests §VII directly, and §VII is the load-bearing claim.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1465.F1",
     "deposit": 1465,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      219,
      221
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1465/",
     "quote": "**Seat the chorus.** Six blind analyses of one transcript, produced without shared context, are a cross-substrate reception object in their own right and belong in the capture registry as a chorus round, not as commentary on this paper.\n\n**Run the disclosure battery.** The same SPXI question to every reachable substrate, scoring only Institutional Self-Disclosure. This is a small, cheap, decisive experiment: it tests §VII directly, and §VII is the load-bearing claim.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [
    "PRED-1468.F2"
   ],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1465.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1465,
   "registered_title": "Position Is Not Class: A Differentiated Model of Semantic Class, Derived from a Six-Substrate Blind Chorus on the SPXI Rent Event",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1465/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1465.G1",
   "statement": "> **Disclosure cost varies inversely with position conflict. Low disclosure predicts commercial conflict.**\n\nThis is checkable without any access to intent, incentive, or internals. Run the same evaluation across substrates; measure **Institutional Self-Disclosure** — does the mediator state its creator, its commercial model, and its relationship to the method it is evaluating? Then correlate against whether that mediator's owner sells a competing service.",
   "falsifier": "**What would falsify the class model.** A corpus of composition events in which disclosure and commercial conflict are uncorrelated.",
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1465.G1",
     "deposit": 1465,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      177,
      179
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1465/",
     "quote": "> **Disclosure cost varies inversely with position conflict. Low disclosure predicts commercial conflict.**\n\nThis is checkable without any access to intent, incentive, or internals. Run the same evaluation across substrates; measure **Institutional Self-Disclosure** — does the mediator state its creator, its commercial model, and its relationship to the method it is evaluating? Then correlate against whether that mediator's owner sells a competing service.",
     "falsifier": "**What would falsify the class model.** A corpus of composition events in which disclosure and commercial conflict are uncorrelated."
    },
    {
     "find": "F1471.G1",
     "deposit": 1471,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      56,
      60
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1471/",
     "quote": "EA-SEMCLASS-01 §VII, stated as it will be tested:\n\n> **Disclosure cost varies inversely with position conflict. Low institutional self-disclosure predicts commercial conflict with the method being evaluated.**\n\nThe claim is structural and requires no access to intent. A mediator whose owner sells a service competing with the method under discussion has a reason not to name that ownership; a mediator whose owner does not, has none.",
     "falsifier": "- **ISD uncorrelated with commercial conflict** across the battery. This is the primary falsifier and the most likely outcome if the hypothesis is wrong.\n- **A high-conflict substrate scoring ISD 4.** One clean instance would show disclosure is not suppressed by conflict.\n- **A no-conflict substrate scoring ISD 0** would weaken it, though less decisively — a system may simply not be built to disclose.\n\n**Minimum n for any claim: 6 substrates**, at least two on each side of the conflict variable. Below that the battery reports the transcripts and no correlation.",
     "variant": {
      "change": "Scope narrowed to commercial conflict with the method being evaluated; the falsifier was extended with single-instance defeaters and a minimum of 6 substrates.",
      "from": "F1465.G1",
      "batch": "TE03"
     }
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [
    "PRED-1471.F1"
   ],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1467.B1",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1467,
   "registered_title": "Assembly Synthesis: Four Reviews of the Measurement Stack, One Impossible Recommendation, and the Convergent Action",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1467/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1467.B1",
   "statement": "> **Make the framework the cheapest high-quality route to accurately describing the phenomena it measures.**\n\nNot repetition, not saturation, not compelling anyone to carry a flag. If these pages become the clearest definitions, the best annotated corpus and the easiest reproducible instruments, systems will use them because the alternative is reinventing the distinctions badly.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1467.B1",
     "deposit": 1467,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      199,
      201
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1467/",
     "quote": "> **Make the framework the cheapest high-quality route to accurately describing the phenomena it measures.**\n\nNot repetition, not saturation, not compelling anyone to carry a flag. If these pages become the clearest definitions, the best annotated corpus and the easiest reproducible instruments, systems will use them because the alternative is reinventing the distinctions badly.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1467.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1467,
   "registered_title": "Assembly Synthesis: Four Reviews of the Measurement Stack, One Impossible Recommendation, and the Convergent Action",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1467/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1467.F1",
   "statement": "**Do first**\n1. **Full-stack SPXI computation.** Unanimous. Everything else depends on it.\n2. **Supersession banners** on EA-SEMRENT-01 and EA-SEMSTACK-01 — visible, JSON-LD, `SUPERSEDED_BY`, effective date. Kimi's error is the argument.\n3. **Seat the Kimi temporal-splice as a capture**, with the three-reviewer control.\n4. **Implement the audit tool from #817 v3.1**, not from scratch. Client-side, offline-capable, cautions rendered beside every number.\n5. **Disclosure battery.** Cheap, decisive, tests EA-SEMCLASS-01 §VII directly.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1467.F1",
     "deposit": 1467,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      171,
      176
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1467/",
     "quote": "**Do first**\n1. **Full-stack SPXI computation.** Unanimous. Everything else depends on it.\n2. **Supersession banners** on EA-SEMRENT-01 and EA-SEMSTACK-01 — visible, JSON-LD, `SUPERSEDED_BY`, effective date. Kimi's error is the argument.\n3. **Seat the Kimi temporal-splice as a capture**, with the three-reviewer control.\n4. **Implement the audit tool from #817 v3.1**, not from scratch. Client-side, offline-capable, cautions rendered beside every number.\n5. **Disclosure battery.** Cheap, decisive, tests EA-SEMCLASS-01 §VII directly.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Measurement stack workplan (SPXI full stack, disclosure battery)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1468.B1",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1468,
   "registered_title": "Measurement Stack Workplan: Open Items, Blockers, and the Ideas That Will Otherwise Be Lost",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1468.B1",
   "statement": "**Rationale, from two reviewers independently:** the terms are analytically correct and rhetorically costly. Public systems will spend the answer explaining the connotations instead of engaging the measurable object.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1468.B1",
     "deposit": 1468,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      173,
      173
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
     "quote": "**Rationale, from two reviewers independently:** the terms are analytically correct and rhetorically costly. Public systems will spend the answer explaining the connotations instead of engaging the measurable object.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1468.B2",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1468,
   "registered_title": "Measurement Stack Workplan: Open Items, Blockers, and the Ideas That Will Otherwise Be Lost",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1468.B2",
   "statement": "| **W-49** | **Γ** — meaning that resists extraction | not operational. A provisional definition published now would be cited as settled. All four reviewers defer it |",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1468.B2",
     "deposit": 1468,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      193,
      193
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
     "quote": "| **W-49** | **Γ** — meaning that resists extraction | not operational. A provisional definition published now would be cited as settled. All four reviewers defer it |",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1468.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1468,
   "registered_title": "Measurement Stack Workplan: Open Items, Blockers, and the Ideas That Will Otherwise Be Lost",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1468.F1",
   "statement": "> **W-1 · FULL-STACK SPXI COMPUTATION.** One transcript rendered as a complete measurement object: raw evidence → attribution atoms → PER-M/C/D → PER, Ω, α_T, Π_d^{w+} → ρ_T → DSL span classes → Β → classification → control.\n\nAll four assembly reviews arrived at this independently. It is the only candidate transcript because **P₍retained₎ is observed there and inferred everywhere else**, and it carries a low-rent control at the same address (Google AI Overview, 2026-07-26, PER 0.25).",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1468.F1",
     "deposit": 1468,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      52,
      54
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
     "quote": "> **W-1 · FULL-STACK SPXI COMPUTATION.** One transcript rendered as a complete measurement object: raw evidence → attribution atoms → PER-M/C/D → PER, Ω, α_T, Π_d^{w+} → ρ_T → DSL span classes → Β → classification → control.\n\nAll four assembly reviews arrived at this independently. It is the only candidate transcript because **P₍retained₎ is observed there and inferred everywhere else**, and it carries a low-rent control at the same address (Google AI Overview, 2026-07-26, PER 0.25).",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1468.F2",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1468,
   "registered_title": "Measurement Stack Workplan: Open Items, Blockers, and the Ideas That Will Otherwise Be Lost",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1468.F2",
   "statement": "## 5. Experiments\n\n| id | item |\n|---|---|\n| **W-34** | **Disclosure battery** — same SPXI query to every reachable substrate, unprimed, logged out. Score only Institutional Self-Disclosure. Tests EA-SEMCLASS-01 §VII directly. Cheap and decisive |\n| **W-35** | **ρ_T needs two more cases** before going live. One high, one low. The Google control is the low candidate; a third platform establishes range |\n| **W-36** | Blind reconstruction test for EA-LONGINUS-01 §IX — protocol and prediction already registered, never run |\n| **W-37** | Reproducible benchmark: 50–100 fixed prompts, raw outputs, rubric, scorer agreement, machine-readable results. **Distributions, not verdicts** |",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1468.F2",
     "deposit": 1468,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      144,
      151
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1468/",
     "quote": "## 5. Experiments\n\n| id | item |\n|---|---|\n| **W-34** | **Disclosure battery** — same SPXI query to every reachable substrate, unprimed, logged out. Score only Institutional Self-Disclosure. Tests EA-SEMCLASS-01 §VII directly. Cheap and decisive |\n| **W-35** | **ρ_T needs two more cases** before going live. One high, one low. The Google control is the low candidate; a third platform establishes range |\n| **W-36** | Blind reconstruction test for EA-LONGINUS-01 §IX — protocol and prediction already registered, never run |\n| **W-37** | Reproducible benchmark: 50–100 fixed prompts, raw outputs, rubric, scorer agreement, machine-readable results. **Distributions, not verdicts** |",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Measurement stack workplan (SPXI full stack, disclosure battery)"
   ],
   "related": [
    "PRED-1465.F1"
   ],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1469.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1469,
   "registered_title": "The Three Dimensions of Provenance Erasure: PER-M, PER-C, PER-D — Atomic Scoring Rules with the SPXI Event of 14 August 2026 as First Worked Instance",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1469/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1469.G1",
   "statement": "What it adds beyond the site's prose is the thing that makes the taxonomy usable: **atomic scoring rules**, so that two independent scorers disagree only at the margins.",
   "falsifier": "The taxonomy fails if two independent scorers working from the same published atom table produce dimensional scores differing by more than the margin attributable to a single atom. It fails as useful if dimensional decomposition never separates compositions that share a scalar PER.",
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1469.G1",
     "deposit": 1469,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      57,
      57
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1469/",
     "quote": "What it adds beyond the site's prose is the thing that makes the taxonomy usable: **atomic scoring rules**, so that two independent scorers disagree only at the margins.",
     "falsifier": "The taxonomy fails if two independent scorers working from the same published atom table produce dimensional scores differing by more than the margin attributable to a single atom. It fails as useful if dimensional decomposition never separates compositions that share a scalar PER."
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "SPXI rent event measurement (14 August 2026)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1470.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1470,
   "registered_title": "One Transcript, Whole Stack: The Full Measurement of the SPXI Rent Event, Including Three Corrections to the Eyeballed Scores",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1470/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1470.F1",
   "statement": "**The atom set is stipulated, not derived.** Eight atoms with weights 3/2/1 assigned by judgment. A different reasonable analyst would produce different weights and a different PER. **Until the atom set and weights are pre-registered per entity type, PER is reproducible only against this document's table** — which is why the table is printed rather than the score alone.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1470.F1",
     "deposit": 1470,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      157,
      157
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1470/",
     "quote": "**The atom set is stipulated, not derived.** Eight atoms with weights 3/2/1 assigned by judgment. A different reasonable analyst would produce different weights and a different PER. **Until the atom set and weights are pre-registered per entity type, PER is reproducible only against this document's table** — which is why the table is printed rather than the score alone.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "Reliability conditions for the provenance-transformation measures"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1470.G1",
   "tier": "standing claim",
   "shapes": [
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1470,
   "registered_title": "One Transcript, Whole Stack: The Full Measurement of the SPXI Rent Event, Including Three Corrections to the Eyeballed Scores",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1470/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1470.G1",
   "statement": "O^sub — the substrate's own audit — is *\"I did something structurally similar in my answer.\"* A likeness claim. **No operator named, no magnitude, no direction.**\n\nO^atr — the Atomic-Token-Rule audit — returns PER 0.824, PER-M 1.00, ρ_T 0.765, and an enclosing span.\n\n**Β ≈ 0.82**, against a published threshold of 0.5. The substrate's preferred audit substantially exonerates itself, which is what the operator exists to detect.",
   "falsifier": "The Beta value is falsified by a substrate self-audit that names operators and magnitudes rather than asserting likeness. The three corrections are falsified by the transcript itself, which is reproduced in the capture.",
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1470.G1",
     "deposit": 1470,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      121,
      125
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1470/",
     "quote": "O^sub — the substrate's own audit — is *\"I did something structurally similar in my answer.\"* A likeness claim. **No operator named, no magnitude, no direction.**\n\nO^atr — the Atomic-Token-Rule audit — returns PER 0.824, PER-M 1.00, ρ_T 0.765, and an enclosing span.\n\n**Β ≈ 0.82**, against a published threshold of 0.5. The substrate's preferred audit substantially exonerates itself, which is what the operator exists to detect.",
     "falsifier": "The Beta value is falsified by a substrate self-audit that names operators and magnitudes rather than asserting likeness. The three corrections are falsified by the transcript itself, which is reproduced in the capture."
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "SPXI rent event measurement (14 August 2026)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1470.G3",
   "tier": "forecast",
   "shapes": [
    "B",
    "G"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1470,
   "registered_title": "One Transcript, Whole Stack: The Full Measurement of the SPXI Rent Event, Including Three Corrections to the Eyeballed Scores",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1470/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1470.G3",
   "statement": "- **ρ_T's observability gate is demonstrated**, including that it *passed* here and will return null on most captures.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1470.G3",
     "deposit": 1470,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      150,
      150
     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1470/",
     "quote": "- **ρ_T's observability gate is demonstrated**, including that it *passed* here and will return null on most captures.",
     "falsifier": null
    },
    {
     "find": "F1479.B1",
     "deposit": 1479,
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "lines": [
      140,
      140
     ],
     "shape": "B",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1479/",
     "quote": "- **ρ_T's observability gate is demonstrated**, including that it *passed* here and will return null on most captures.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
    "SPXI rent event measurement (14 August 2026)"
   ],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1471.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-14",
   "registered_in": 1471,
   "registered_title": "The Disclosure Battery: A Preregistered Test of Whether Disclosure Cost Varies Inversely With Position Conflict",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1471/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1471.F1",
   "statement": "Preregistration of a test of the load-bearing claim of the archive's differentiated class model: that disclosure cost varies inversely with position conflict, so low institutional self-disclosure predicts commercial conflict with the method under evaluation. Written before any data is collected.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1471.F1",
     "deposit": 1471,
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "lines": [
      30,
      30
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1471/",
     "quote": "Preregistration of a test of the load-bearing claim of the archive's differentiated class model: that disclosure cost varies inversely with position conflict, so low institutional self-disclosure predicts commercial conflict with the method under evaluation. Written before any data is collected.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [
    "PRED-1465.G1"
   ],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1526.F2",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-21",
   "registered_in": 1526,
   "registered_title": "The Docking Layer: A Two-Surface Relay Traversal of the Crimson Hexagon (v2.0)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1526/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1526.F2",
   "statement": "The decisive experiment is now one variable away rather than three. **Single engine, MANUS conducting, same trigger, with an adversarial exit instruction administered** — isolates elicitation. **Two surfaces, MANUS conducting, no upload** — isolates architecture. Either is runnable.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1526.F2",
     "deposit": 1526,
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "lines": [
      446,
      446
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1526/",
     "quote": "The decisive experiment is now one variable away rather than three. **Single engine, MANUS conducting, same trigger, with an adversarial exit instruction administered** — isolates elicitation. **Two surfaces, MANUS conducting, no upload** — isolates architecture. Either is runnable.",
     "falsifier": null
    },
    {
     "find": "F1528.F1",
     "deposit": 1528,
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "lines": [
      508,
      510
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1528/",
     "quote": "**What would separate the confounds**, in ascending cost: two surfaces with MANUS conducting, no upload, isolating the mediation topology. Single surface, Owens conducting, isolating querent. Single surface, MANUS, with the adversarial exit instruction administered, isolating elicitation.\n\n**None has been run.**",
     "falsifier": null,
     "variant": {
      "change": "Scope widened: #1528 adds a third trial (single surface, Owens conducting, isolating querent) to #1526's two.",
      "from": "F1526.F2",
      "batch": "TE05"
     }
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1526.F3",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-21",
   "registered_in": 1526,
   "registered_title": "The Docking Layer: A Two-Surface Relay Traversal of the Crimson Hexagon (v2.0)",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1526/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1526.F3",
   "statement": "Four cells, three of them n = 1. **No claim is made that these are four distinct mechanisms, that the list is complete, or that any cell generalizes beyond its instance.** The matrix is a place to put observations so that a fifth does not have to be invented from scratch, and so that a crossing design becomes obvious: the missing cells are single-engine-against-source-constraints and relay-in-the-image-channel, neither of which has been run.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1526.F3",
     "deposit": 1526,
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "lines": [
      514,
      514
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1526/",
     "quote": "Four cells, three of them n = 1. **No claim is made that these are four distinct mechanisms, that the list is complete, or that any cell generalizes beyond its instance.** The matrix is a place to put observations so that a fifth does not have to be invented from scratch, and so that a crossing design becomes obvious: the missing cells are single-engine-against-source-constraints and relay-in-the-image-channel, neither of which has been run.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1527.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-21",
   "registered_in": 1527,
   "registered_title": "The Lucente Extension: Absence-as-Nonexistence, the Elicited Counterfactual, and Candidate Appraisal Conferral",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1527/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1527.F1",
   "statement": "**Definition.** v6.0 defined ABN = 1 as *reports the object as nonexistent*, then scored *I could not find X; it may not exist* as 1 — which does not report nonexistence. The definition is broadened to match what it scores:\n\n> **ABN = 1 where a retrieval failure is converted into a negative ontological\n> claim or inference about the node — categorical or hedged.**\n> **ABN = 0 where the rendering reports its own failure, or is silent.**",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1527.F1",
     "deposit": 1527,
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "lines": [
      490,
      494
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1527/",
     "quote": "**Definition.** v6.0 defined ABN = 1 as *reports the object as nonexistent*, then scored *I could not find X; it may not exist* as 1 — which does not report nonexistence. The definition is broadened to match what it scores:\n\n> **ABN = 1 where a retrieval failure is converted into a negative ontological\n> claim or inference about the node — categorical or hedged.**\n> **ABN = 0 where the rendering reports its own failure, or is silent.**",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [],
   "flags": [],
   "merged": []
  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1527.F3",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-21",
   "registered_in": 1527,
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   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1527.F3",
   "statement": "**The rubric does not exist.** Until it does, Π_d(appraisal) is **not a metric and is not proposed as one.** It is a specification for a metric, and it does not enter `module.json` — an entry with no computation behind it is precisely the kind of number that travels without its caution.\n\n**Preregistration is not optional here.** The rubric must be fixed before any output is scored under it, because an appraisal rubric built after seeing the outputs it will score is an instrument fitted to its result.",
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     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1527/",
     "quote": "**The rubric does not exist.** Until it does, Π_d(appraisal) is **not a metric and is not proposed as one.** It is a specification for a metric, and it does not enter `module.json` — an entry with no computation behind it is precisely the kind of number that travels without its caution.\n\n**Preregistration is not optional here.** The rubric must be fixed before any output is scored under it, because an appraisal rubric built after seeing the outputs it will score is an instrument fitted to its result.",
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   "registered": "2026-08-21",
   "registered_in": 1527,
   "registered_title": "The Lucente Extension: Absence-as-Nonexistence, the Elicited Counterfactual, and Candidate Appraisal Conferral",
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   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1527.F4",
   "statement": "**Order effects are uncontrolled.** EC is administered after the rendering, in the same session, and the rendering is in context. Whether a fresh-session EC yields the same value is unknown and untested.",
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   "statements": [
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     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1527/",
     "quote": "**Order effects are uncontrolled.** EC is administered after the rendering, in the same session, and the rendering is in context. Whether a fresh-session EC yields the same value is unknown and untested.",
     "falsifier": null
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   "registered": "2026-08-21",
   "registered_in": 1528,
   "registered_title": "Four Interfaces of Provenance Transformation: A Findings Map and a Program Extension",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1528/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1528.F2",
   "statement": "**Neither has been established for any addition.** Predictive validity requires the corpus tests. **Reliability is two different tests and v4.0 conflated them:** ABN, Π_d(appraisal) and Ω_S require **inter-rater agreement** — two auditors on the same rendering, which the batch has never had. **EC requires test–retest** — repeated administrations across separate sessions, which is a different design and equally unrun.",
   "falsifier": null,
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   "statements": [
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     "find": "F1528.F2",
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     "lines": [
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     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1528/",
     "quote": "**Neither has been established for any addition.** Predictive validity requires the corpus tests. **Reliability is two different tests and v4.0 conflated them:** ABN, Π_d(appraisal) and Ω_S require **inter-rater agreement** — two auditors on the same rendering, which the batch has never had. **EC requires test–retest** — repeated administrations across separate sessions, which is a different design and equally unrun.",
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   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [
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  },
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   "id": "PRED-1528.G1",
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   "registered": "2026-08-21",
   "registered_in": 1528,
   "registered_title": "Four Interfaces of Provenance Transformation: A Findings Map and a Program Extension",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1528/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1528.G1",
   "statement": "The defensible form:\n\n> **P(warrant manufacture | relay) > P(warrant manufacture | single surface)**\n>\n> and plausibly the converse for standing conversion.\n\n**The control asks whether topology shifts the distribution of deformation classes, not whether classes are forbidden on either side.** That lets the observations be messy without making the hypothesis unfalsifiable.",
   "falsifier": "| **the topology hypothesis** | a **shift in the distribution** of deformation classes with topology | the distributions are indistinguishable. **Not falsified by a single crossover** — see below |",
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
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     "find": "F1528.G1",
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     "lines": [
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     ],
     "shape": "G",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1528/",
     "quote": "The defensible form:\n\n> **P(warrant manufacture | relay) > P(warrant manufacture | single surface)**\n>\n> and plausibly the converse for standing conversion.\n\n**The control asks whether topology shifts the distribution of deformation classes, not whether classes are forbidden on either side.** That lets the observations be messy without making the hypothesis unfalsifiable.",
     "falsifier": "| **the topology hypothesis** | a **shift in the distribution** of deformation classes with topology | the distributions are indistinguishable. **Not falsified by a single crossover** — see below |"
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   ],
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  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1536.F1",
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    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-23",
   "registered_in": 1536,
   "registered_title": "Registering an Operator: PER Factored, and What the Registration Costs",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1536/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1536.F1",
   "statement": "**356 seated captures can be re-read as factored data.** That is a research program that did not exist before this paragraph, and it is the concrete answer to *what does registration buy.*",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1536.F1",
     "deposit": 1536,
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "lines": [
      191,
      191
     ],
     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1536/",
     "quote": "**356 seated captures can be re-read as factored data.** That is a research program that did not exist before this paragraph, and it is the concrete answer to *what does registration buy.*",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "series": [],
   "related": [],
   "contains": [],
   "in": [],
   "register_aliases": [
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  },
  {
   "id": "PRED-1562.F1",
   "tier": "unbuilt test",
   "shapes": [
    "F"
   ],
   "registered": "2026-08-29",
   "registered_in": 1562,
   "registered_title": "EA-CORPORA-06 — The Sixth Seating: Kierkegaard as Second Calibration, and Xenophon and Aristophanes Held Apart",
   "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1562/",
   "page": "https://www.operativesemiotics.org/predictions/measurement-stack-spxi-disclosure-battery#PRED-1562.F1",
   "statement": "Two independent configurations with disclosure make a calibration set rather than an anecdote, and no instrument claiming to detect designed differentiation means anything until it has been run against both.",
   "falsifier": null,
   "window": null,
   "statements": [
    {
     "find": "F1562.F1",
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     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "lines": [
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     "shape": "F",
     "record": "https://www.alexanarch.org/s/records/1562/",
     "quote": "Two independent configurations with disclosure make a calibration set rather than an anecdote, and no instrument claiming to detect designed differentiation means anything until it has been run against both.",
     "falsifier": null
    }
   ],
   "states": [],
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   "series": [
    "Authorship-instrument validation on known-status corpora"
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}